I used to handicap every race at Canterbury, and make 'mythical' bets, just to test my systems/picks. I always wanted to be able to share these insights, though in theory, if more people bet them, the payout will be less.
The bettor must be convinced that he/she can win often enough to make backing longshots fun, and worthwhile. He/she must learn through experience that such horses can give a real run for the money, and are not just hopeless longshots which only win through sheer luck.
Pro Rated Longshots was developed for this very purpose-to meet the need for that effective winning approach which concentrates not only on performance factors but also the essential ingredient of price.
What follows will give you a totally new perspective in your effort to beat the races.
Pro Rated Longshots is a handicapping approach to longshot winner-picking. It is designed to select horses, which through a combination of performane and price factors, give you a sufficient edge or overlay to offset the ravages of take and breakage.
Pro Rated Longshots snags winners with almost ridiculous ease; many of its $20, $30, and $50 payoffs are obtained with no more effort than $5 or $10 winners with conventional selection methods.
Pro Rated Longshots is based, very simply, on running position (including finishing positions), or more specifically, the horse's running positions in it's three most recent races.
Pro Rated Longshots seeks horse's which were running first, second, or third in as many calls as possible of the top three races.
The selection process considers four calls or stages in the horse's top three races, and it's Performance Rating is based on the number of points it can earn by running forwardly (1st, 2nd, 3rd) at these various calls.
Running positions-including the finish-are the end result of all other factors (such as class, form, speed, consistenct, breeding, etc.) A horse cannot be leading, or running close to the leader, at any stage of a race (including the finish) unless it has the current form, inherent class, and speed to cope with it's field.
In order to qualify, a horse must have finished out of the money in it's last race, thereby increasing the likelihood of its going postward at attractive odds.
There is probably no single factor which enhances a horse's post-time odds like an out-of-the-money finish in it's last race. The betting public is all too prone to judge a horse's chances by this one call-ignoring all the other calls-so that it's odds primarily depend on whether it has finished in or out of the money in it's most recent race.
This may be a little hard to demonstrate without graphics or tables. I'll have to think about this one.
If you've read this far, it's really a very simple process. It's important to understand the procedures, but in the end this can be modified to a simple formula, or check-off, which indicates the 'best play'.
Off at: 3:14 Race Type: Claiming   Age Restriction: Three Year Old and Upward   Sex Restriction: Fillies and Mares   Value of Race: $5,000   Distance: Five And One Half Furlongs   Surface Type: Dirt Track Condition: Fast   Winning Time: 1:05.39 Pgm Horse Jockey Win Place Show 6 Suminister Iram Vargas Diego 49.60 22.40 15.80
4 Lucky Charleen Michael G. Ziegler 22.40 14.20 7 Innocent Remark Randy Schacht 8.00 Also ran: 9 - Fiery Love , 3 - Dancer's Prospect , 8 - Cassie the Martyr , 1 - Such a Foxy Thing , 2 - Trouble N Beantown , 11 - Bonnie Mae , 10 - Seal Bay , 5 - Luby Blue
Wager Type Winning Numbers Payoff
$1 Pick 3 6-8-6 (2 correct) 181.20 $1 Exacta 6-4 213.40 $1 Superfecta 6-4-ALL-ALL 1,888.00 $1 Trifecta 6-4-7 6,801.00 Winning Breeder: Jane De Bruycker Winning Owner: Richard Townsend Winning Trainer: Richard Townsend
Off at: 3:14 Race Type: Claiming   Age Restriction: Three Year Old and Upward   Sex Restriction: Fillies and Mares   Value of Race: $5,000   Distance: Five And One Half Furlongs   Surface Type: Dirt Track Condition: Fast   Winning Time: 1:05.39 Pgm Horse Jockey Win Place Show 6 Suminister Iram Vargas Diego 49.60 22.40 15.80
4 Lucky Charleen Michael G. Ziegler 22.40 14.20 7 Innocent Remark Randy Schacht 8.00 Also ran: 9 - Fiery Love , 3 - Dancer's Prospect , 8 - Cassie the Martyr , 1 - Such a Foxy Thing , 2 - Trouble N Beantown , 11 - Bonnie Mae , 10 - Seal Bay , 5 - Luby Blue
Wager Type Winning Numbers Payoff
$1 Pick 3 6-8-6 (2 correct) 181.20 $1 Exacta 6-4 213.40 $1 Superfecta 6-4-ALL-ALL 1,888.00 $1 Trifecta 6-4-7 6,801.00 Winning Breeder: Jane De Bruycker Winning Owner: Richard Townsend Winning Trainer: Richard Townsend
Sipping Bud Light from a plastic cup Sunday, Phoenix firefighter Chris Hertzog clapped his hands and stuck his tongue out in glee.
Hours earlier, he thought he lost a ticket worth $864,253 for accurately predicting the Kentucky Derby's top four horses.
He and a lawyer were driving to Turf Paradise Race Course to battle for the money with the owners.
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OAS_AD('BoxAd')
Then the woman who sold him the ticket called. She found it lying beside a register.
Still, Hertzog's victory dance was for another reason.
He said his divorce was finalized last week.
"This ain't changing my life," said the 39-year-old father of three. "I'm going back to the firehouse on Wednesday."
To celebrate Sunday night he planned to eat with friends - at least a dozen of whom called him in less than 30 minutes - at Richardson's, a central Phoenix restaurant.
Maybe buy a Rolex GMT to replace one he lost fishing.
Maybe a Dodge Viper.
Hertzog's drama started Saturday when he decided to make one of his usual quick picks on a race.
Hertzog placed 100 $1 bets on Saturday's Kentucky Derby with Brenda Reagan at Turf Paradise. A computer randomly generated the picks. Fifty were trifectas - which name the top three finishing horses, in order - and 50 were superfectas, which select the top four finishers.
Hertzog put the tickets in his back pocket and had lunch. After the race, he didn't think he won. So he put the tickets on a table and got up to stroll around the track.
Then everything changed.
"(Turf Paradise owner) Jerry Simms took me aside and asked me if I had the ticket, and I said no, that it'd been thrown away," Hertzog said. "So he took us down to the mechanical room and we started going through trash cans."
Track security guards brought in trash from all the areas where Hertzog thought he had been.
They gave Hertzog and a handful of friends all the time they needed to sift through it.
Hours after they started Saturday, the men gave up.
It was a temporary setback.
After working his regular shift Sunday at Phoenix fire Station 28, Hertzog and his lawyer drove to the track, prepared to argue that Hertzog should get the payout even though he didn't have the ticket.
State law requires a winner to present the actual ticket to receive the winnings.
But there was video of Hertzog buying the ticket at the time the computer sold it. The track sold only one winning superfecta ticket. The woman who sold it said Hertzog was the only buyer.
Meanwhile, Reagan also a bartender at Turf Paradise was working her shift behind the bar. She wasn't looking for Hertzog's ticket.
By chance, she glanced over and saw it lying beside her ticket machine.
She wasn't sure at first if it was the winner. She asked customers at her bar which horses were the Derby's top finishers.
She started waving and shaking.
First she called her boss. Then Hertzog.
"Oh my God," said Reagan, a mother of four. "This is it."
Traditionally, the bettor gives the ticket seller some kind of reward.
Hertzog said he hasn't decided what to give Reagan.
"I'll take care of her," he said. "I'll take care of my guys."
The winnings were the track's biggest payout on a single ticket in memory, Simms said.
Six other tickets were issued across the nation choosing Giacomo, Closing Argument, Afleet Alex and Don't Get Mad as the winning Thoroughbreds.
Turf Paradise wrote Hertzog a check for $604,977.50. Hertzog's federal withholding was about $216,063 and his state was $43,213.
Hertzog asked Kyle Israel, his lawyer (and friend of 15 years, Israel was quick to point out), to show a reporter the check.
"Do you have the check?" Hertzog said.
"Yes, sir," Israel answered.
Aside, Israel said to the reporter, about calling his friend "sir": "There's probably a few choice things I used to call him, but now he definitely gets the nickname upgrade."
After a long day confronting skeptics, Hertzog was relaxed and personable Sunday night.
And what of those skeptics, who didn't believe he could have won?
Sipping Bud Light from a plastic cup Sunday, Phoenix firefighter Chris Hertzog clapped his hands and stuck his tongue out in glee.
Hours earlier, he thought he lost a ticket worth $864,253 for accurately predicting the Kentucky Derby's top four horses.
He and a lawyer were driving to Turf Paradise Race Course to battle for the money with the owners.
advertisement
OAS_AD('BoxAd')
Then the woman who sold him the ticket called. She found it lying beside a register.
Still, Hertzog's victory dance was for another reason.
He said his divorce was finalized last week.
"This ain't changing my life," said the 39-year-old father of three. "I'm going back to the firehouse on Wednesday."
To celebrate Sunday night he planned to eat with friends - at least a dozen of whom called him in less than 30 minutes - at Richardson's, a central Phoenix restaurant.
Maybe buy a Rolex GMT to replace one he lost fishing.
Maybe a Dodge Viper.
Hertzog's drama started Saturday when he decided to make one of his usual quick picks on a race.
Hertzog placed 100 $1 bets on Saturday's Kentucky Derby with Brenda Reagan at Turf Paradise. A computer randomly generated the picks. Fifty were trifectas - which name the top three finishing horses, in order - and 50 were superfectas, which select the top four finishers.
Hertzog put the tickets in his back pocket and had lunch. After the race, he didn't think he won. So he put the tickets on a table and got up to stroll around the track.
Then everything changed.
"(Turf Paradise owner) Jerry Simms took me aside and asked me if I had the ticket, and I said no, that it'd been thrown away," Hertzog said. "So he took us down to the mechanical room and we started going through trash cans."
Track security guards brought in trash from all the areas where Hertzog thought he had been.
They gave Hertzog and a handful of friends all the time they needed to sift through it.
Hours after they started Saturday, the men gave up.
It was a temporary setback.
After working his regular shift Sunday at Phoenix fire Station 28, Hertzog and his lawyer drove to the track, prepared to argue that Hertzog should get the payout even though he didn't have the ticket.
State law requires a winner to present the actual ticket to receive the winnings.
But there was video of Hertzog buying the ticket at the time the computer sold it. The track sold only one winning superfecta ticket. The woman who sold it said Hertzog was the only buyer.
Meanwhile, Reagan also a bartender at Turf Paradise was working her shift behind the bar. She wasn't looking for Hertzog's ticket.
By chance, she glanced over and saw it lying beside her ticket machine.
She wasn't sure at first if it was the winner. She asked customers at her bar which horses were the Derby's top finishers.
She started waving and shaking.
First she called her boss. Then Hertzog.
"Oh my God," said Reagan, a mother of four. "This is it."
Traditionally, the bettor gives the ticket seller some kind of reward.
Hertzog said he hasn't decided what to give Reagan.
"I'll take care of her," he said. "I'll take care of my guys."
The winnings were the track's biggest payout on a single ticket in memory, Simms said.
Six other tickets were issued across the nation choosing Giacomo, Closing Argument, Afleet Alex and Don't Get Mad as the winning Thoroughbreds.
Turf Paradise wrote Hertzog a check for $604,977.50. Hertzog's federal withholding was about $216,063 and his state was $43,213.
Hertzog asked Kyle Israel, his lawyer (and friend of 15 years, Israel was quick to point out), to show a reporter the check.
"Do you have the check?" Hertzog said.
"Yes, sir," Israel answered.
Aside, Israel said to the reporter, about calling his friend "sir": "There's probably a few choice things I used to call him, but now he definitely gets the nickname upgrade."
After a long day confronting skeptics, Hertzog was relaxed and personable Sunday night.
And what of those skeptics, who didn't believe he could have won?
I used to handicap every race at Canterbury, and make 'mythical' bets, just to test my systems/picks. I always wanted to be able to share these insights, though in theory, if more people bet them, the payout will be less.
WTF, get ready to learn:
Pro Rated Longshots
A Proven Method for Selecting Longshot Winners
The bettor must be convinced that he/she can win often enough to make backing longshots fun, and worthwhile. He/she must learn through experience that such horses can give a real run for the money, and are not just hopeless longshots which only win through sheer luck.
Pro Rated Longshots was developed for this very purpose-to meet the need for that effective winning approach which concentrates not only on performance factors but also the essential ingredient of price.
What follows will give you a totally new perspective in your effort to beat the races.
Pro Rated Longshots is a handicapping approach to longshot winner-picking. It is designed to select horses, which through a combination of performane and price factors, give you a sufficient edge or overlay to offset the ravages of take and breakage.
Pro Rated Longshots snags winners with almost ridiculous ease; many of its $20, $30, and $50 payoffs are obtained with no more effort than $5 or $10 winners with conventional selection methods.
Pro Rated Longshots is based, very simply, on running position (including finishing positions), or more specifically, the horse's running positions in it's three most recent races.
Pro Rated Longshots seeks horse's which were running first, second, or third in as many calls as possible of the top three races.
The selection process considers four calls or stages in the horse's top three races, and it's Performance Rating is based on the number of points it can earn by running forwardly (1st, 2nd, 3rd) at these various calls.
How can we afford to concentrate solely on running positions and ignore the many other factors used to judge a horse's current capabilities?
Running positions-including the finish-are the end result of all other factors (such as class, form, speed, consistenct, breeding, etc.) A horse cannot be leading, or running close to the leader, at any stage of a race (including the finish) unless it has the current form, inherent class, and speed to cope with it's field.
In order to qualify, a horse must have finished out of the money in it's last race, thereby increasing the likelihood of its going postward at attractive odds.
There is probably no single factor which enhances a horse's post-time odds like an out-of-the-money finish in it's last race. The betting public is all too prone to judge a horse's chances by this one call-ignoring all the other calls-so that it's odds primarily depend on whether it has finished in or out of the money in it's most recent race.
Pro Rated Longshots selects its plays in three steps:
Next, an in-depth look at these three steps.
Eliminate all horses which:
a. Consider the original finishing position only; ignore disqualifications
(moving the horse higher or lower, or disqualifications from purse money).
b. Horses which tie or dead-heat for third are considered to have finished third.
a. Last race within 30 days, next-to-last race within 60 days, third race back within 90 days.
b. Maximum interval of 60 days between two successive races in the three race span.
and between the next-to-last and third race back.
Having reduced the field to horses which:
We are ready for the next step.
This may be a little hard to demonstrate without graphics or tables. I'll have to think about this one.
If you've read this far, it's really a very simple process. It's important to understand the procedures, but in the end this can be modified to a simple formula, or check-off, which indicates the 'best play'.
[Edited 6 times. Most recently by on May 6, 2005 at 04:40am.]
[Edited 6 times. Most recently by on May 6, 2005 at 04:40am.]
4th race - Canterbury Park - May 07, 2005
Off at: 3:14 Race Type: Claiming
  Age Restriction: Three Year Old and Upward
  Sex Restriction: Fillies and Mares
  Value of Race: $5,000
  Distance: Five And One Half Furlongs
  Surface Type: Dirt Track Condition: Fast
  Winning Time: 1:05.39
Pgm Horse Jockey Win Place Show
6 Suminister Iram Vargas Diego 49.60 22.40 15.80
4 Lucky Charleen Michael G. Ziegler 22.40 14.20
7 Innocent Remark Randy Schacht 8.00
Also ran: 9 - Fiery Love , 3 - Dancer's Prospect , 8 - Cassie the Martyr , 1 - Such a Foxy Thing , 2 - Trouble N Beantown , 11 - Bonnie Mae , 10 - Seal Bay , 5 - Luby Blue
Wager Type Winning Numbers Payoff
$1 Pick 3 6-8-6 (2 correct) 181.20
$1 Exacta 6-4 213.40
$1 Superfecta 6-4-ALL-ALL 1,888.00
$1 Trifecta 6-4-7 6,801.00
Winning Breeder: Jane De Bruycker
Winning Owner: Richard Townsend
Winning Trainer: Richard Townsend
4th race - Canterbury Park - May 07, 2005
Off at: 3:14 Race Type: Claiming
  Age Restriction: Three Year Old and Upward
  Sex Restriction: Fillies and Mares
  Value of Race: $5,000
  Distance: Five And One Half Furlongs
  Surface Type: Dirt Track Condition: Fast
  Winning Time: 1:05.39
Pgm Horse Jockey Win Place Show
6 Suminister Iram Vargas Diego 49.60 22.40 15.80
4 Lucky Charleen Michael G. Ziegler 22.40 14.20
7 Innocent Remark Randy Schacht 8.00
Also ran: 9 - Fiery Love , 3 - Dancer's Prospect , 8 - Cassie the Martyr , 1 - Such a Foxy Thing , 2 - Trouble N Beantown , 11 - Bonnie Mae , 10 - Seal Bay , 5 - Luby Blue
Wager Type Winning Numbers Payoff
$1 Pick 3 6-8-6 (2 correct) 181.20
$1 Exacta 6-4 213.40
$1 Superfecta 6-4-ALL-ALL 1,888.00
$1 Trifecta 6-4-7 6,801.00
Winning Breeder: Jane De Bruycker
Winning Owner: Richard Townsend
Winning Trainer: Richard Townsend
Firefighter's wild ride at the races
Loses ticket, learns it won, bartender finds it
Emily Bittner and Holly Johnson
The Arizona Republic
May. 9, 2005 12:00 AM
Sipping Bud Light from a plastic cup Sunday, Phoenix firefighter Chris Hertzog clapped his hands and stuck his tongue out in glee.
Hours earlier, he thought he lost a ticket worth $864,253 for accurately predicting the Kentucky Derby's top four horses.
He and a lawyer were driving to Turf Paradise Race Course to battle for the money with the owners.
OAS_AD('BoxAd')
Then the woman who sold him the ticket called. She found it lying beside a register.
Still, Hertzog's victory dance was for another reason.
He said his divorce was finalized last week.
"This ain't changing my life," said the 39-year-old father of three. "I'm going back to the firehouse on Wednesday."
To celebrate Sunday night he planned to eat with friends - at least a dozen of whom called him in less than 30 minutes - at Richardson's, a central Phoenix restaurant.
Maybe buy a Rolex GMT to replace one he lost fishing.
Maybe a Dodge Viper.
Hertzog's drama started Saturday when he decided to make one of his usual quick picks on a race.
Hertzog placed 100 $1 bets on Saturday's Kentucky Derby with Brenda Reagan at Turf Paradise. A computer randomly generated the picks. Fifty were trifectas - which name the top three finishing horses, in order - and 50 were superfectas, which select the top four finishers.
Hertzog put the tickets in his back pocket and had lunch. After the race, he didn't think he won. So he put the tickets on a table and got up to stroll around the track.
Then everything changed.
"(Turf Paradise owner) Jerry Simms took me aside and asked me if I had the ticket, and I said no, that it'd been thrown away," Hertzog said. "So he took us down to the mechanical room and we started going through trash cans."
Track security guards brought in trash from all the areas where Hertzog thought he had been.
They gave Hertzog and a handful of friends all the time they needed to sift through it.
Hours after they started Saturday, the men gave up.
It was a temporary setback.
After working his regular shift Sunday at Phoenix fire Station 28, Hertzog and his lawyer drove to the track, prepared to argue that Hertzog should get the payout even though he didn't have the ticket.
State law requires a winner to present the actual ticket to receive the winnings.
But there was video of Hertzog buying the ticket at the time the computer sold it. The track sold only one winning superfecta ticket. The woman who sold it said Hertzog was the only buyer.
Meanwhile, Reagan also a bartender at Turf Paradise was working her shift behind the bar. She wasn't looking for Hertzog's ticket.
By chance, she glanced over and saw it lying beside her ticket machine.
She wasn't sure at first if it was the winner. She asked customers at her bar which horses were the Derby's top finishers.
She started waving and shaking.
First she called her boss. Then Hertzog.
"Oh my God," said Reagan, a mother of four. "This is it."
Traditionally, the bettor gives the ticket seller some kind of reward.
Hertzog said he hasn't decided what to give Reagan.
"I'll take care of her," he said. "I'll take care of my guys."
The winnings were the track's biggest payout on a single ticket in memory, Simms said.
Six other tickets were issued across the nation choosing Giacomo, Closing Argument, Afleet Alex and Don't Get Mad as the winning Thoroughbreds.
Turf Paradise wrote Hertzog a check for $604,977.50. Hertzog's federal withholding was about $216,063 and his state was $43,213.
Hertzog asked Kyle Israel, his lawyer (and friend of 15 years, Israel was quick to point out), to show a reporter the check.
"Do you have the check?" Hertzog said.
"Yes, sir," Israel answered.
Aside, Israel said to the reporter, about calling his friend "sir": "There's probably a few choice things I used to call him, but now he definitely gets the nickname upgrade."
After a long day confronting skeptics, Hertzog was relaxed and personable Sunday night.
And what of those skeptics, who didn't believe he could have won?
"Now they do," he laughed.
Firefighter's wild ride at the races
Loses ticket, learns it won, bartender finds it
Emily Bittner and Holly Johnson
The Arizona Republic
May. 9, 2005 12:00 AM
Sipping Bud Light from a plastic cup Sunday, Phoenix firefighter Chris Hertzog clapped his hands and stuck his tongue out in glee.
Hours earlier, he thought he lost a ticket worth $864,253 for accurately predicting the Kentucky Derby's top four horses.
He and a lawyer were driving to Turf Paradise Race Course to battle for the money with the owners.
OAS_AD('BoxAd')
Then the woman who sold him the ticket called. She found it lying beside a register.
Still, Hertzog's victory dance was for another reason.
He said his divorce was finalized last week.
"This ain't changing my life," said the 39-year-old father of three. "I'm going back to the firehouse on Wednesday."
To celebrate Sunday night he planned to eat with friends - at least a dozen of whom called him in less than 30 minutes - at Richardson's, a central Phoenix restaurant.
Maybe buy a Rolex GMT to replace one he lost fishing.
Maybe a Dodge Viper.
Hertzog's drama started Saturday when he decided to make one of his usual quick picks on a race.
Hertzog placed 100 $1 bets on Saturday's Kentucky Derby with Brenda Reagan at Turf Paradise. A computer randomly generated the picks. Fifty were trifectas - which name the top three finishing horses, in order - and 50 were superfectas, which select the top four finishers.
Hertzog put the tickets in his back pocket and had lunch. After the race, he didn't think he won. So he put the tickets on a table and got up to stroll around the track.
Then everything changed.
"(Turf Paradise owner) Jerry Simms took me aside and asked me if I had the ticket, and I said no, that it'd been thrown away," Hertzog said. "So he took us down to the mechanical room and we started going through trash cans."
Track security guards brought in trash from all the areas where Hertzog thought he had been.
They gave Hertzog and a handful of friends all the time they needed to sift through it.
Hours after they started Saturday, the men gave up.
It was a temporary setback.
After working his regular shift Sunday at Phoenix fire Station 28, Hertzog and his lawyer drove to the track, prepared to argue that Hertzog should get the payout even though he didn't have the ticket.
State law requires a winner to present the actual ticket to receive the winnings.
But there was video of Hertzog buying the ticket at the time the computer sold it. The track sold only one winning superfecta ticket. The woman who sold it said Hertzog was the only buyer.
Meanwhile, Reagan also a bartender at Turf Paradise was working her shift behind the bar. She wasn't looking for Hertzog's ticket.
By chance, she glanced over and saw it lying beside her ticket machine.
She wasn't sure at first if it was the winner. She asked customers at her bar which horses were the Derby's top finishers.
She started waving and shaking.
First she called her boss. Then Hertzog.
"Oh my God," said Reagan, a mother of four. "This is it."
Traditionally, the bettor gives the ticket seller some kind of reward.
Hertzog said he hasn't decided what to give Reagan.
"I'll take care of her," he said. "I'll take care of my guys."
The winnings were the track's biggest payout on a single ticket in memory, Simms said.
Six other tickets were issued across the nation choosing Giacomo, Closing Argument, Afleet Alex and Don't Get Mad as the winning Thoroughbreds.
Turf Paradise wrote Hertzog a check for $604,977.50. Hertzog's federal withholding was about $216,063 and his state was $43,213.
Hertzog asked Kyle Israel, his lawyer (and friend of 15 years, Israel was quick to point out), to show a reporter the check.
"Do you have the check?" Hertzog said.
"Yes, sir," Israel answered.
Aside, Israel said to the reporter, about calling his friend "sir": "There's probably a few choice things I used to call him, but now he definitely gets the nickname upgrade."
After a long day confronting skeptics, Hertzog was relaxed and personable Sunday night.
And what of those skeptics, who didn't believe he could have won?
"Now they do," he laughed.